NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Trump's national lead over Biden grows — CBS News poll

When former President Donald Trump accepts the Republican nomination Thursday night,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center he'll do so with his largest national lead over President Biden in the campaign thus far. 

A slight majority, including some who aren't voting for him, say Trump's words in the days since the assassination attempt have been more unifying than divisive. Voters feel the same way about Mr. Biden's response to the tragic events, too.

But it is Trump with the growing advantage in the vote. Trump is up five points nationally now, and three across the key battleground states. To put that national lead in context: it's been 20 years since a Republican presidential candidate has won the national popular vote, and over 30 years since a Republican won by more than five. 

The race across the battlegrounds moved one point more toward Trump today since we surveyed the battlegrounds last week.

For voters, Trump's perceived handling of the assassination attempt is a net-positive reason to consider voting for him, but that effect is limited overall; for two-thirds, it has not changed their consideration calculus either way.

Of the candidates atop the party tickets, Trump is the one more voters feel fights "a lot" for people like them. 

Amid the nomination debate on the Democratic side, Trump also leads Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical matchup. There are at best marginal differences in how she and Mr. Biden currently run among demographic groups, such as younger voters and voters of color. 

A still substantial part of his party feels Mr. Biden should step aside as nominee, and Democrats continue to lag behind Republicans on their expressed likelihood of turning out this year.

There is a bipartisan view — though particularly among Republicans —  that the U.S. Secret Service could have done more to prevent the shooting on Saturday. 

Mr. Biden also responded to the events, and most Americans also think he's encouraged unity, including a third of Trump voters. 

For all that, eight in 10 voters feel that civility in U.S. politics has gotten worse in recent years, and most expect an increase in political violence in the future. 

JD Vance

The addition of Sen. JD Vance to the GOP ticket is being viewed positively by Republican voters: most are at least satisfied, and half are enthusiastic about the choice. This is particularly true among the MAGA wing of the party. 

---

This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 2,247 registered voters nationwide interviewed between July 16-18, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters nationwide. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.7 points. Battlegrounds are AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI.

Toplines:

Cbsnews 20240718 National-t... by CBSNews.com

In:
• Opinion Poll
• Joe Biden
• Donald Trump
• Election

Anthony Salvanto

Anthony Salvanto, Ph.D., is CBS News' executive director of elections and surveys. He oversees the CBS News Poll and all surveys across topics and heads the CBS News Decision Desk that estimates outcomes on election nights

Twitter